Welcome to DAWeb, the web site of the Decision Analysis Society of INFORMS. The Society promotes the development and use of logical methods for the improvement of decision-making in public and private enterprise. Such methods include models for decision-making under conditions of uncertainty or multiple objectives; techniques of risk analysis and risk assessment; experimental and descriptive ...

BUGS is a piece of computer software for the Bayesian analysis of complex statistical models using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Software for several platforms is available for downloading, and all the manuals are also available online or in downloadable formats.

Probability Theory As Extended Logic Last Modified 04-30-2002 Edwin T. Jaynes was one of the first people to realize that probability theory, as originated by Laplace, is a generalization of Aristotelian logic that reduces to deductive logic in the special case that our hypotheses are either true or false. This web site has been established to help promote this interpretation of probability ...

Duke University ISDS Home Page ...

Software for Flexible Bayesian Modeling and Markov Chain Sampling This software supports Bayesian regression and classification models based on neural networks and Gaussian processes, and Bayesian mixture models. It also supports a variety of Markov chain sampling methods, which may be applied to distributions specified by simple formulas, including simple Bayesian models defined by formulas for ...

Biography of Thomas Bayes (1702-1761) ...

Bayesian Model Averaging Home Page Bayesian Model Averaging is a technique designed to help account for the uncertainty inherent in the model selection process, something which traditional statistical analysis often neglects. By averaging over many different competing models, BMA incorporates model uncertainty into conclusions about parameters and prediction. BMA has been applied successfully to ...

XML Belief Network File Format: Main Page Topics Background The XBN File Format Overview of the XBN Format Example Primary Elements of an XBN Belief Network DTD and XML Examples Background Over the last several years, there has been ongoing discussion of the potential value of creating a Bayesian Network Interchange Format (BNIF) to promote collaboration among investigators in the Uncertainty ...

Bayesian Analysis (since 6/95) index to bayes-an titles/authors get bayes-an/abstract help e-Prints are available for the following years: 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 Additional: new bayes-an papers received (most recent mailing) recent bayes-an listings current month's bayes-an listings lastupdate of daily changes to bayes-an database (ftp format) some info for bayes-an Link back ...

Bayesian Research Conference The Bayesian Research Conference is held each year in mid February at the Sportsman's Lodge in Studio City, California. These meetings are very high in quality and also extremely diverse. Investigators with a common background in decision making present papers on topics that may be empirical or theoretical involving questions that may be basic or applied, and ...

Brad Carlin's Music Page Here are a few mp3 files I've been involved with (use Internet Explorer to hear them): Wimoweh (The Lion Sleeps Tonight) : Lyrics and Music Brad Carlin (lead and backing vocals). This was just a fun way to learn how to use a 4-track recorder! Biostat Division Blues : Lyrics and Music Lance Waller (guitar); Brad Carlin (piano, bass, drum machine, lead and backing vocals).

Blind source separation separating unobservable or latent source signals when mixed signals are observed.